Doctors and hospitals treated more patients and collected more payments in the spring as millions gained insurance coverage under the health law, new figures from the government show.
But analysts called the second-quarter increases modest and said there is little evidence to suggest that wider coverage and a recovering economy are pushing health spending growth to the painful levels of a decade ago.
Thursday’s results from the Census Bureau’s survey of service industries join other recent cost indicators that “are quite a bit lower than what the folks at CMS were projecting,” said Charles Roehrig, director of the Center for Sustainable Health Spending at the Altarum Institute, a nonprofit research and consulting outfit. “And they’re lower than what we were expecting as well.”
CMS is the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the government’s main health care bookkeeper. Last week CMS projected that health-expenditure growth would accelerate to 5.6 percent this year from an estimated 3.6 percent in 2013.
But health and social spending as measured by the Census Bureau grew by only 3.7 percent from the second quarter of 2013 to the same quarter of 2014. Hospital revenue increased 4.9 percent during the same period. Revenue for physician offices barely budged, growing by only 0.6 percent. Medical lab revenue rose 1.9 percent.
The report is far from being the last word. It doesn’t include spending on prescription drugs, which has been rising this year thanks to new very expensive medicines for hepatitis C.
And while the Census Bureau’s year-over-year results for the second quarter show tame cost trends, the increase from the first quarter to the second was more substantial. Total health and social spending rose at an annual rate of more than 12 percent from first quarter to the next. If sustained, such acceleration would raise alarms and actuaries’ blood pressure.
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Jeffrey R. Ungvary President